Tech
What Broke U.S. Recession Indicators | Mark Zandi
Moody’s Analytics’ chief economist Mark Zandi cautions that a recession may be on the horizon.
In an interview with CNBC’s Andrea Miller, Zandi said a recession did not occur in the first half of this year. Zandi called employment levels the “most important indicator[s]” of a recession. With unemployment at the low rate of 3.5%, he doesn’t buy the view that two back-to-back quarters of negative growth alone are sufficient to make for a recession.
But Zandi did warn that he expects layoffs to increase in the days ahead.
“With this kind of low unemployment, inflation’s going to remain a problem,” he said, and to address that the Federal Reserve has signaled it will continue to raise interest rates in an attempt to slow down the job market.
Zandi attributed the confusion about whether the U.S. experienced a recession in the first half of this year to the coronavirus pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. “These two massive supply shocks have hit the economy at roughly the same time,” Zandi said, which makes interpreting the data about the economy particularly challenging.
The Moody’s chief economist said that if rising prices don’t ebb “the only way to get rid of that persistent stubborn inflation would be to push the economy into a recession.” If there is a recession, Zandi said it “probably won’t happen until the second half of 2023.”
As to preparing for a downturn, Zandi said Americans should “spend, save, invest in the same way that they typically do,” but to remain cautious.
“Americans don’t need to run for the bunkers,” he said. “But maybe keep one hand on the bunker door just to be safe and sound.”
Watch the full interview in the video above.
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What Broke U.S. Recession Indicators | Mark Zandi
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@RobertRWarren-oz4
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
Very likely, an outside force caused this recession. The US dollar's influence as a government reserve currency is waning for the first time in decades. The ability to control inflation is no longer possible, and less money is being spent on oil and stock trading than in the past. These all lend credence to the notion that a new multilateral international order is being developed.
@danielwarfel4193
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
This guy thinks we should never pay off the debt and just keep borrowing borrowing with a strong economy, that's the problem with the world is everybody is in debt
nobody pays for anything with their own money
@bernardallen55
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
This recession is most likely the result of an external factor. For the first time in decades, the United States is losing its clout as a federal reserve currency. They don't have any more economies to use to control inflation, and less money is being spent on stock and oil trading than in the past. They all lend support to the idea that a new multilateral world order is in the works.
@kayt9576
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
Congress needs to impose excised taxes on high profits of all corporations, Its the only way to slow inflation. Hurting people with increasing interest will not slow the inflation. HIGH INFLATION IS CAUSED BY OVER PRICING OF GOODS BY CORPORATIONS.
@advancetotabletop5030
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
With markets tumbling, inflation soaring, the Fed imposing large interest-rate hike, while treasury yields are rising rapidly—which means more red ink for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the current volatile market, I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $125k bond/stock portfolio
@facts_matter_3000
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
During Trump's tenure, the US economy contracted 3.5% – the fastest rate since 1946. GDP growth was the worst since the Great Depression. Trump was the worst jobs president in recorded history. The Dow had the largest single-day stock market drops in the history of Dow Jones. The national debt under Trump increased by 39 percent. The annual deficit under Trump ranks as the second highest of any president in history.
@michaelscott8430
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
Gas prices were high BEFORE Ukraine.
@MrHav1k
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
Jerome Powell and the Fed literally trying to put people out on the streets.
@Mrs.Doubtfire007
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
THIS GIRL LOOKS WEIRD & IS HORRIBLY DISTRACTING. GET A MAN, NOT A WOKE SJW HAG!!!
@adamc3811
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
If you dont see that the usa economy has completely failed you shouldnt be any kind of financial analysis. I definitely dont need a rich guy in a suit giving me economic advice cause they are consistently wrong especially republicans. They are the dumbest people among us.
@camadams9149
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
2:57 False. Wages growth is significantly less than inflation aka not the problem.
Funny how they are always trying to gaslight you that your wages should be less. We can have this conversation again when C-Suite compensation is slashed, profit margins are razor thin, and no stock buybacks are occuring
@callmebyyourname8332
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
I have been a fan of Mark Zandi for 20 years. He has a straight forward way of communicating economic information to us common folk.
@magdalenposada4127
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
‘’Courage taught me no matter how bad a crisis gets … any sound investment will eventually pay off."
@timothyandrews3443
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
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keep up with good videos🚀🚀
@victorsperandeo3609
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
With all due respect this man is full of s -it .two down quarters has been defined as a recession since the 1950’s . Jobs are a lagging indicator . A teenager knows this .
@finestbearhug2951
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
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January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
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@offthetrip4267
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H87fLZ1qIgs&ab_channel=ShowUpRich
@AndresBiarge
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
He left out a crucial piece of the inflation puzzle: what about the millions in stimulus printed?
@floxydorathy6611
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
Idle money gets killed due to inflation. I'm in a privileged position to be able to save almost 65% of our net household income, placed it on safer investment . The key for us was not spending beyond our means. In this era you have to hold on to every dollar and make it count.
@nevillokapi3617
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
Fake Dollar Illusion..$$
@bladeqmaster
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
Why her tone sounds sassy? Is it just certain way of people in the states like cali talks?
@nostrildumbass2019
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
Biden’s policy’s are what KILLED the economy around the world. You didn’t see any of this during Trumps administration.🇨🇳Fjb🇨🇳
@franciscosanpedro3836
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
I’ll believe the people who actually knew about the pandemic. We know more than You, you didn’t even know about Wuhan Virus 🦠 ei coronavirus
@franciscosanpedro3836
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
None you knew about the pandemic, yet you predicting a recession, that already happened two years ago when the world was on lockdown. That was stimulus checks. None you know about finances you just networked with the right people. And repeat whatever others are saying.
@jdevoz
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
Price gouging prior to recession, fed moves targeting individuals, not source of this fake inflation, will hurt doubly bad when the inevitable recession hits. What goes up must come down, except now salaries never go up.
@secienaa6012
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
it's just the big #market makers covering their shorts before expiration of option contracts. The selling will resume after 20th October unless the #Fed stops pulling out money from the market. A #metaverse gaming that you shouldn't miss is #TheMera #DeFiWarrior #crypto #btc
@26longlongtime
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
I love how we're just rolling along with this new definition of recession like they didn't just change it
@theresawall4581
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
Investment covers you anytime anyday.. investment helps you to understand what life is and it meaning.. miraveststock got you covered with the weekly profit of 25% weekly profit. Just give it a try to see how it works.
@sergiokieri3137
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
I just think this man is laughable, he is trying to signal concern but then tells you not to save now even though most Americans live paycheck to paycheck. He says a recession has to occur to bring down inflationary prices but then mentions we need less workers after saying this is the result of 2 supply shocks. If this recession is lead by a supply problem how will cutting workers help? What about the natural cuts to the workforces that are going to occur, retirement of the boomers?
Even if we cut 3 million job listings from the marketplace we still have steady job numbers.
@medielijah
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
Unprofessional host. Low value interview. Waste of time.
@parth1210
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
Only thing he definitely said will happen is more layoffs are coming
@farahmo4519
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
Whatever happened to the quality of presenters?? 🤔
@larrydugan1441
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
November elections have changed the definition of recession? Apparently trillions pumped into the economy by the Democrats has nothing to do with inflation. The liberal media never rests.
@sbkpilot1
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
Zandt used to be a perma bull now he just keeps saying bearish things…
@CuriosityCollector
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
Everyone in this video is so awkward
@4.0gpa44
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
2 quarters of negetative GDP growth is a recession.
@jaydibernardo4320
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
In other words he has no idea what the future holds
@kgpz100
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
The billionaire class has us in this constant cycle to funnel our tax money to their corporations. And in all honesty, if this recession (read: incoming depression) we're under Trump, we would be sounding the alarm bells. But since a Dem is president, guess we just don't care!
@marccaron2340
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
You will see with less oil in the economy you will always have a strong job market but most of these jobs Will be slavery type of jobs … jobs won’t ever be a sign of wealth of the economy overall anymore jobs figures will become irrelevant
@frankbruno3242
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
Yes we are ready in ression don't care what this guy says
@Micksmix256
January 14, 2024 at 10:52 pm
Cant hear a thing lol