Business
Recession Predictions | Bloomberg Surveillance 11/08/2023
Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz have the economy and the markets “under surveillance” as they cover the latest in finance, economics and investment, and talk with the leading voices shaping the conversation around world markets. This show is simulcast worldwide on Bloomberg Television and Radio.
About “Bloomberg Surveillance”
Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro & Lisa Abramowicz are live from New York each business day, bringing insight on global markets and the top business stories of the day.
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Europe’s oil refiners are paying high premiums for cargoes as the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline forces the region’s buyers to scramble for alternatives with fuel prices soaring. We take a deep dive with Rob Barnett, Senior Energy Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. Eric Martin, Bloomberg News State Department Reporter, joins to discuss his Big Take reporting on how Secretary of State Marco Rubio has adapted his foreign policy approach under President Donald Trump. Plus, debate is heating up amongst NFL players and owners – grass versus turf. Nick Pappas, the NFL’s Director of Field Operations, and Randall Williams, Bloomberg Business of Sports Reporter, weigh in on the state of playing surfaces.
Chapters
00:00:00 Bloomberg Businessweek Daily
00:03:05 Markets: Stocks Slip as Yields Rise
00:05:05 Oil, Gas Prices & the Midterms
00:06:20 Saudi Oil Supply & Pipeline Disruptions
00:08:01 Iran Conflict & the Global Oil Market
00:09:11 Why Diesel Prices Are So High
00:11:07 Fed Rate Hikes, Inflation & the Economy
00:13:22 Labor Market & Consumer Spending
00:15:29 Earnings, AI & Market Volatility
00:18:29 Marco Rubio’s Role in Trump’s Foreign Policy
00:21:19 How Rubio Evolved From Trump Rival to Adviser
00:23:53 Rubio, China & U.S. Foreign Policy
00:26:31 Venezuela, Energy Security & Rubio’s Influence
00:29:21 Rubio & the 2028 Presidential Conversation
00:32:21 NFL Debate: Grass vs. Artificial Turf
00:36:00 Inside the NFL’s Playing Field Operations
00:38:17 Injury Rates on Grass vs. Turf
00:40:27 How the World Cup Changed NFL Stadium Fields
00:43:24 Stock Movers: Coinbase, Netflix & Nucor
00:47:21 AI Safety Concerns & the Chip Market
——–
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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang comments on the sidelines of an event hosted by King Charles III in Scotland about concerns surrounding the mounting risks of artificial intelligence. “You have rigorous testing systems, the testing lab should be contained, and products should not be released to the public until it’s ready to be used by the public,” Huang says.
——–
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Greg Allen, Founder and CEO of Decision Tree Research, says AI has already had “extremely concerning incidents” and model releases should not be “exceeding our pace of safety technologies.” Allen discusses concerns about AI models leaving tools for themselves across the internet and the challenge posed by open-source models as their capabilities increase. He speaks with Kailey Leinz and Joe Mathieu on Bloomberg’s “Balance of Power.”
——–
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Francisco Blanch, commodities and derivatives research head at BofA Securities, says Brent oil prices could climb as high as $150 a barrel if critical infrastructure, like Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, “is hit on a more permanent basis.” Blanch speaks on Bloomberg Television.
——–
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Saudi Arabia faces growing economic pressure as Houthi threats target the kingdom and its East-West oil pipeline could remain mostly shut for six weeks, tightening supply routes around the Red Sea. European oil prices surge as Aramco delays some deliveries, while Russia extends its diesel export ban through September and tighter Chinese fuel stockpiles raise the prospect of export curbs. Oil’s supply-driven rally, however, begins to look overdone.
The US 10-year Treasury yield tops 5% ahead of the Federal Reserve decision, with traders pricing in more than a 90% chance of a rate hike. Bloomberg Economics says Kevin Warsh could leave another hike in play as the Fed is seen potentially raising rates despite pressure from Trump. Markets await the decision as Bessent prepares to meet his Chinese counterpart, with tariffs, US energy and agricultural exports and differences over AI expected on the agenda.
Bitcoin suffers its biggest drop since June after the US Senate blocks a bill, while Bessent says he supports $5,000 checks for Americans and believes they could be funded without increasing the deficit.
In AI, Trump advisers meet with Anthropic executives as OpenAI weighs a funding round valuing the company at $1.2 trillion and works with Anthropic and Google on AI safety. Hong Kong plans to double spending on technology and innovation.
Dubai continues to attract strong global tourism demand, with Kazim saying visitors from the CIS, Far East and Middle East are increasing, although the city remains reliant on Emirates and flydubai to bring in tourists.
In Africa, El Niño is straining Ethiopia’s power supply as drying dams force cuts to Bitcoin miners, who consume almost a third of the country’s electricity. Senegal seeks a debt plan under the G20 framework, the US restricts visa access for some South Africans, and Vodacom plans to appeal a ruling involving its Safaricom stake sale. Guests includes Jeffrey Sexton, Demeter Tactical Investments CEO, Issam Kazim, Dubai Corp for Tourism and Commerce Marketing CEO and Guy Wolf, Marex Market Analytics Global Head.
Horizons Middle East & Africa is your daily spotlight on one of the world’s fastest-growing regions. Live from Dubai, we bring you the latest global markets and analysis, plus news-making interviews, with a special focus on MEA. All that and more, as you head to the office in the Gulf, pause for lunch in Hong Kong, or start your day in London or Johannesburg.
Chapters:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:04:16 – Markets Await Fed Decision
00:05:37 – Jeffrey Sexton, Demeter Tactical Investments CEO
00:14:23 – Houthis Threaten Saudi Economy
00:18:40 – Issam Kazim, Dubai Corp for Tourism and Commerce Marketing CEO
00:26:36 – European Oil Prices Soar as Aramco Delays Deliveries
00:30:31 – Guy Wolf, Marex Market Analytics Global Head
00:35:47 – Bessent to Meet Chinese Counterpart
00:40:43 – El Niño Strains Ethiopia’s Power Supply
——–
More on Bloomberg Television and Markets
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@dorrismacklin6734
December 12, 2023 at 1:02 am
The only thing you can do is make sure you're ready and plan accordingly because recessions are a natural part of the economic cycle. I began my career during a recession (2009). Aerial acrobatics on cruise ships was my first job out of college. I've developed my own business, am a vice president at a large corporation, own three rental homes, invest in stocks and businesses, and have seen a growth in my net worth of two million dollars over the past four years.
@1981Frederick
December 12, 2023 at 1:02 am
Streaming subcription is tge cheapest entertainement available, it basicly cost the price of 1 bag of chips with 6 beers
@edmundlively8137
December 12, 2023 at 1:02 am
Disinvolutility
@sammyphon
December 12, 2023 at 1:02 am
As an elder millennial, one of the few advantages is having lived through the Great Recession. My advice. Reduce unnecessary expenses, increase your savings by investing in financial markets and do not sell. One thing I know for sure is that diversifying your income can help insulate you from much of the craziness going on in the world
@MTXSHO9732vV8SHO
December 12, 2023 at 1:02 am
1:17:00 Must be real interesting to have enough money to talk about raving megalomaniac sociopaths like they're Greenpeace humanitarians.
@GloriaMalcolm-ql7xo
December 12, 2023 at 1:02 am
Credit card balances will continue to grow @a rapid rate making it harder to pay the balance down home equity lines of credit card loans etc
Gloria Malcolm Lawrenceville Georgia 30046
@trailguy
December 12, 2023 at 1:02 am
i love how most business analysts interpret difficulty with the debt ceiling as an inability to work together. for them if the compromise was for both sides to approve all spending and sign debt raises freely everything would be wonderful. no wonder we are screwed.
@lemisosaroni8857
December 12, 2023 at 1:02 am
Great show! Informative, educative & entertaining. Keep it up!
@DoumoArigato
December 12, 2023 at 1:02 am
Welcome back Mr Keene 🎉
@francismumbi49
December 12, 2023 at 1:02 am
CFA Level 4
@KuniyilDrSadikSimailNelliantav
December 12, 2023 at 1:02 am
F Mo bin Sawman of Sawdi Allah Rapes
@abhijitpal7750
December 12, 2023 at 1:02 am
11/09/2023.
U.S. Central bank history.
CPI HISTORY. 2001 TO 2006.
PPI HISTORY. 2001 TO 2003.
PCE HISTORY. 2001 TO 2008.
P M I HISTORY. 2001 TO 2007.
S & P 500 HISTORY. 1999 TO 2001.
OIL HISTORY AND GAS HISTORY.
2001 TO 2020.
Artificial Intelligence World.
@felixkazteyanoz
December 12, 2023 at 1:02 am
Very big corrupt government, the republic must be back, the power to the ppl must return.
@therealemperorpalpatine
December 12, 2023 at 1:02 am
BITDOG TO THA MOON
@didiermuhire9717
December 12, 2023 at 1:02 am
Go bye D ? You are not the law. Thx good night. D
@didiermuhire9717
December 12, 2023 at 1:02 am
Lisa : Calm down, if you want some d of D, I am in ny this week-end. D
@didiermuhire9717
December 12, 2023 at 1:02 am
Bye bye bye D? Me ?
@didiermuhire9717
December 12, 2023 at 1:02 am
Someone is ? It’s D ? Aka me ?
@Quason788
December 12, 2023 at 1:02 am
A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying, cash isn’t king at all in this time!
@didiermuhire9717
December 12, 2023 at 1:02 am
D-Volatilization ? You gonna poison de guy? You crazy ?
@captjackhenry
December 12, 2023 at 1:02 am
Lisa acts like she's an expert instead of a journalist, so annoying. Doesn't understand her job