Business
US in Recession, Choppy Market Ahead: Schwab’s Kleintop
US in Recession, Choppy Market Ahead: Schwab’s Kleintop
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President Donald Trump signed a directive renaming Lake Ontario as Lake America effective immediately. “Canada has been ripping us off for a long time on trade,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office when asked what message he was sending to the US’s northern neighbor.
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The US extended a 10% tariff baseline hitting most major trading partners, prompting pushback from countries around the world. #trump #politics #news #usa
The US Trade Representative’s office laid out how it will collect duties of 10% to 12.5% on imports from almost 60 countries and the European Union, effective Friday.
The rationale was that the targeted economies failed to prevent forced labor in their supply chains, according to the US Trade Representative’s office.
Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-24/trump-extends-10-tariff-baseline-in-broad-use-of-trade-powers
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On the early edition of Balance of Power, Bloomberg Washington Correspondents Joe Mathieu and Tyler Kendall discuss Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole. On today’s show, Austrian National Bank Governor Martin Kocher, Stonecourt Capital Partner Rick Davis, Harvard Kennedy School Ash Center Visiting Democracy Fellow Jeanne Sheehan Zaino and Retired US Army Brigadier General Leela Gray.
Chapters
00:00:00 Radio Balance of Power: Early Edition
00:01:46 Market Update: Stocks, Bonds & Oil
00:03:54 Warsh Vows to Return Inflation to 2%
00:05:22 Austrian Central Bank Governor on Warsh’s Speech
00:07:20 Europe, Energy Prices & the Inflation Fight
00:10:13 Global Debt & the Challenge for Central Banks
00:12:23 Is AI Inflationary or Disinflationary?
00:14:24 Europe’s Economy & Higher Oil Prices
00:17:04 Iran, Inflation & the Strait of Hormuz
00:19:01 Market Update After Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech
00:20:19 Why Long-Term Bond Yields Are So High
00:22:44 Treasury Intervention & the Bond Market
00:25:25 Political Panel on Warsh, Rates & the Economy
00:27:07 Economic Anxiety Ahead of the Midterms
00:29:01 Could the Fed Hike Rates Before the Election?
00:30:46 Housing Affordability & Mortgage Rates
00:32:35 Market Update: Yields Jump, Tech Stocks Fall
00:34:26 What Comes Next After Warsh’s Speech?
00:35:26 Jobs, CPI & the September Fed Decision
00:40:08 Six Months Into the Iran War
00:41:12 Gen. Leela Gray on Iran & the Cost of War
00:43:02 Diplomacy, Sanctions & Military Action
00:44:10 Iran, Cybersecurity & Emerging Threats
00:45:25 Defense Spending, Drones & Future Warfare
——–
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Oil markets focus on the recovery of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as flows begin to improve and concerns over supply disruptions ease. Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil exports remain below pre-war levels, while total flows recover toward 15 to 16 million barrels a day. The US says sea mines have been cleared from Hormuz.
Qatar and Iran discuss the possibility of restarting talks with the US, while Trump rejects returning to the June Iran deal. Rising Hormuz flows are helping reduce fears of a prolonged oil supply squeeze.
Venezuela considers leaving OPEC after nearly six decades of membership as the US weighs opportunities in the country’s oil sector. An exit could have wider implications for OPEC and the global politics of oil.
Markets turn to Jackson Hole, where Fed Chair Warsh is set to deliver his first major speech at the gathering. Fed officials remain divided over the path for interest rates, with Goolsbee calling for evidence that inflation is persistent and Schmid saying higher rates could be appropriate. Investors also assess whether the US midterm elections could influence Fed policy.
Gold has gained sharply this month as investors reassess the rate outlook, while demand for additional gold stockpiles grows in Singapore and Hong Kong. Japan’s two-year bond auction sees its weakest demand measure since 2016, adding to concerns in Asian fixed-income markets.
US-Canada trade tensions remain in focus, with Greer suggesting the US may need to consider restrictions on Canadian goods. Trump also criticizes Canada over trade relations and changes the name of a major lake.
In sports, LIV Golf faces questions over its future as the Saudi-backed circuit confronts funding challenges and uncertainty over its place in professional golf.
Nepal’s flood disaster worsens, with the death toll reaching 469 and more than 1,200 people still missing. Reconstruction could cost billions of dollars as the country assesses the damage.
In Zambia, police build a treason case against an opposition leader arrested shortly after the August 13 election, while inflation falls to an eight-year low. Guests includes Selina Ling, OCBC Chief Economist and Guy Wolf, Marex Global Head of Market Analytics.
Horizons Middle East & Africa is your daily spotlight on one of the world’s fastest-growing regions. Live from Dubai, we bring you the latest global markets and analysis, plus news-making interviews, with a special focus on MEA. All that and more, as you head to the office in the Gulf, pause for lunch in Hong Kong, or start your day in London or Johannesburg.
Chapters:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:06:10 – Gulf Oil Exports at Two-Thirds of Pre-War Levels
00:13:26 – Warsh to Make First Jackson Hole Speech as Fed Chair
00:15:15 – Selina Ling, OCBC Chief Economist
00:20:37 – LIV Golf’s Uncertain Future
00:27:24 – Guy Wolf, Marex Global Head of Market Analytics
00:31:33 – Jeffrey Schmid, Kansas City Fed President
00:37:14 – Swarnim Wagle, Nepal Finance Minister
00:38:44 – Binod Chaudhary, Chaudhary Group Chairman & President
00:42:30 – Election Dispute in Zambia
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Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Hordern speak daily with leaders and decision makers from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. No other program better positions investors and executives for the trading day.
Chapters:
00:00 Treasury vs. Bond Market, Nvidia and Canada Trade War
05:11 Treasury Can’t Override Bond Market Forces — George Goncalves, MUFG
17:59 Iran Can’t Be Economically Strangled Without China — Lt. Gen. Karen Gibson (Ret.), Academy Securities
35:12 Canada Is Showing Trump It Won’t Back Down — Kate Kalutkiewicz, Former Trump White House Trade Official
42:24 Treasury Move Is Another Way to a Weaker Dollar — Kit Juckes, Société Générale
54:55 5% Treasury Yield Could Trigger Stock Reckoning — Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley
1:07:55 Canada Fight Helps Trump Rally MAGA Voters — Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners
1:17:00 AI Boom Hasn’t Even Reached Sovereign Buildout — Ted Mortonson, Baird
1:28:37 Treasury Needs Issuance Cuts to Really Move Yields — Meghan Swiber, BofA Securities
1:40:43 Bond Vigilantes Are Back for First Time in Decades — Dan Suzuki, iCapital
1:49:36 United Sees No Cracks in Travel Demand — Scott Kirby, United Airlines
2:06:57 Fed Could Still Hike Three Times This Year — Robert Sockin, PGIM
2:15:58 Everyone Is Afraid to Say the Economy Is Fine — Dan Greenhaus, Solus Alternative Asset Management
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@roadsectoradventures1282
December 28, 2023 at 5:09 am
Robots are here!
@camerastagevideos913
December 28, 2023 at 5:09 am
Bidenomics at work.
@kurdi98k
December 28, 2023 at 5:09 am
The recession has started.
@blackmoses706
December 28, 2023 at 5:09 am
Been in a recession for years now fednow and CBDC is the reason for the banks crashing this is just the beginning the new world order 🙌
@truepersona6804
December 28, 2023 at 5:09 am
Clean-Top !
Nation-wide bank losses have to be covered up by printing unimaginable amounts of more FIAT money !
Bank bailouts will cost USA taxpayers an additional TWO TRILLION+ DOLLARS and that is separate from the deficit spending which will increase the national DEBT by another TEN TRILLION+ DOLLARS while Democrats are in office. This MEGA MADOFF PONZI scheme "proudly" made in the USA is getting crazier and crazier and there is no stopping or escaping it !?! 😅🤣😅
@deesus1085
December 28, 2023 at 5:09 am
Listen. Go buy Europe and Asia and good luck 😂
@praveenspike
December 28, 2023 at 5:09 am
S&P and Dow Jones rely on CCP and CPI data, if both are strong S&P and Dow not needs to worry too much.
@drscopeify4582
December 28, 2023 at 5:09 am
The US economy really enjoys a bit of inflation and I don't think it's an issue, high employment numbers will motivate people to get out and work and pay for higher prices. As baby boomers retire we will need to motivate people to get out and work which inflation being a good carrot for the horse. I think the FED focus on 2% is just not realistic, with the coming De-globalization we need to be open to accepting an environment with higher inflation long term, not 6% or 5% but maybe in the 3s and 4s as long as it is under control.
@5876efcn
December 28, 2023 at 5:09 am
American can invent a new product and we would buy it. even if it a new shoe lace invented to tie our shoe .
@5876efcn
December 28, 2023 at 5:09 am
why don't you ask the fed to lower the interest rates so we can pump the market up again. everything is sold
@5876efcn
December 28, 2023 at 5:09 am
yes I know we are in a recession. apple MacBook Pro and max are slashing discount prices and the product just came out dude! that's how I know.
@33Treez
December 28, 2023 at 5:09 am
$GRT future 75b+ Market Cap valuation forecasts… Anything that improves A.I. and Web3/4 capabilities is a smart move…
@shingnosis
December 28, 2023 at 5:09 am
Stock market is still high, inflation is still high, employment is high, a few idiots banks gambled and lost, the savers will be taken care of, why should the FED flinch? I'm not big fan of the FED's action during the pandemic and now this, but why should they flinch? We're miles of the supposed 2% inflation target. I see literally no reason for the FED not to stay the course.
@Azel247
December 28, 2023 at 5:09 am
Stop with the wimpy 0.5% moves. Let's raise rates by 20% and just be done with it.
@justinuwaidia5873
December 28, 2023 at 5:09 am
someone watched the grammys
@hRt42kuo7jTtmk14
December 28, 2023 at 5:09 am
The Fed Put is back.
@aratrex3
December 28, 2023 at 5:09 am
Risk is cancelled. Everyone is getting bailed out. Stonks to the moon!