Business
‘Major Bear Market’ says Hedge Fund Manager Who Made 163% Return in 2022
Neal Berger’s Contrarian Macro Fund soared around 163% last year betting on the market downturn, in its first full year, by loading up on bets that the Fed would unwind a decade of stimulus. He talks to Bloomberg TV’s Dani Burger, Guy Johnson and Alix Steel about his strategy, positions and what might lie ahead for markets in 2023.
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The US and Iran exchanged strikes for the first time in about a month as American forces hit an island in the Strait of Hormuz and the Islamic Republic responded by launching attacks on the United Arab Emirates and Jordan.
US Treasury yields ticked lower and stock futures were mixed as traders assessed the outlook for interest rates following Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s hawkish inflation comments at Jackson Hole.
John Ternus steps into his new role as Apple chief executive officer this week. Ternus won’t have much time before the company begins its annual fall product rollouts. This year the lineup will include an unusually ambitious slate of devices he’s been teasing for months internally.
Today’s guests: Bjoern Griesbach, Allianz Investment Management Head of Macroeconomic and Capital Market Research; James Kisner, Water Tower Research Technology Research Analyst.
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“The Pulse With Francine Lacqua” is all about conversations with high profile guests in the beating heart of global business, economics, finance and politics. Based in London, we go wherever the story is, bringing you exclusive interviews and market-moving scoops.
Chapters:
00:00:00 – The Pulse
00:00:23 – Stocks, gold drop on Fed rate-hike bets
00:01:13 – Bjoern Griesbach, Allianz Investment Management Head of Macroeconomic and Capital Market Research
00:09:17 – Oil gains as US hits Hormuz targets
00:11:14 – Trump’s Iran war exposes new challenge for Xi-Putin security bloc
00:14:04 – Germany’s Saxony-Anhalt holds elections Sept. 6
00:18:47 – Iceland votes to reject the European Union
00:21:41 – Monday top stories
00:23:02 – Monday headlines
00:23:25 – Apple’s Ternus takes CEO reins with AI first priority
00:26:22 – James Kisner, Water Tower Research Technology Research Analyst
00:33:58 – Lawmakers focus on compromise in UBS capital debate
00:36:08 – Shein falls in Hong Kong gray market
00:40:44 – BOE’s Bailey plays down inflation risk ahead of decision
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The Japanese yen is so weak that even the US has stepped in to prop up the currency.
The joint US-Japan action, the first in 15 years, underscores their unprecedented determination to defend the Asian currency. Mia Glass explains why.
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Warsh reiterated that policymakers have a “firm, fixed target” of 2% inflation at the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Bloomberg’s Maria Eloisa Capurro explains.
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Bloomberg Television brings you the latest news and analysis leading up to the final minutes and seconds before and after the closing bell on Wall Street. Today’s guests are Columbia Business School Professor Abby Joseph Cohen, Loop Capital Markets Consumer Sector Head, Senior Research Analyst Anthony Chukumba, The Conference Board CEO Steve Odland, Man Group Chief Market Strategist Kristina Hooper, Willow Wealth CEO Mitchell Caplan, McGraw Hill CEO Philip Moyer, Unifor National President Lana Payne, & Wedbush Securities Managing Director, Equity Research Matt Bryson.
Chapters:
00:00:00 Bloomberg The Close
00:02:51 Abby Joseph Cohen on Markets, Consumers & the Economy
00:07:24 AI Spending, Productivity & the Sustainability Question
00:11:42 Jackson Hole Preview & Kevin Warsh’s Fed Strategy
00:15:27 Nvidia, OpenAI & the AI Trade Ahead of Earnings
00:17:23 Top Calls
00:18:15 Dick’s Sporting Goods Plunges on Foot Locker Troubles
00:22:38 Consumer Confidence Falls as Inflation Anxiety Builds
00:25:13 Consumer Debt, Spending & the Risk to Economic Growth
00:27:48 CEO vs. Consumer Confidence & the Holiday Retail Outlook
00:30:29 Stock of the Hour: Super Micro Jumps on Cisco Partnership
00:32:09 Cisco, Super Micro & the AI Infrastructure Buildout
00:37:37 Man Group on Treasury Intervention, Yields & Fed Policy
00:41:01 AI Debt, Inflation & the Jackson Hole Outlook
00:43:27 Closing Bell
00:45:47 Intuit Earnings & the SaaS Selloff
00:47:29 Market Movers: Moderna, Nvidia & Resolve AI
00:49:08 Dick’s Worst Day Ever Raises Questions About Foot Locker
00:50:50 Zoom & Box Earnings Hit After the Bell
00:52:44 AI and the “SaaS-pocalypse” Debate
00:54:31 Market Recap: Nvidia Rebounds as Oil & Yields Fall
00:55:39 Mitch Caplan on Retail Investors & Private Markets
00:57:22 Private Credit, Higher Yields & the New 60/40 Portfolio
01:00:01 Why Companies Are Staying Private Longer
01:01:24 Private Market Liquidity & Access for Retail Investors
01:02:47 Private Assets in 401(k)s & Vanguard’s Zero-Allocation Call
01:05:54 After-Hours Movers: Intuit, Zoom & Box
01:08:12 McGraw Hill CEO on AI, Education & the Future of Learning
01:10:15 How Teachers and Students Should Use AI
01:12:06 McGraw Hill’s Agentic AI Strategy
01:13:28 Screen-Time Backlash & the Return of Print
01:16:29 U.S.-Canada Trade War Escalates
01:17:35 Unifor President on Auto Tariffs & North American Manufacturing
01:20:18 Canada’s Response to the U.S. Trade War
01:24:20 Nvidia Earnings Preview: Can AI Growth Keep Delivering?
01:25:49 Nvidia’s Next Growth Engine & Rising Chip Competition
01:28:23 What to Watch
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Ed Morris, Senior Adviser and Commodities Expert, discusses the recent fall in Brent crude oil prices. The decline is attributed to market attention on the potential impact of Iran sanctions, which are influencing supply expectations and investor sentiment in the commodities market. He speaks with Romaine Bostick on “The Close.”
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@UK-ni1wl
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
This is a prime source of learning. Watch this and have a group debate over investing. This guy turned out to be completely wrong from then to 2023, and on the other hand gained 163% in the market downturn. What is the major takeaway? What reaction back then was the most thoughtful? How should we deal best with media providing market information such as this?
@goat7844
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
He knows a lot but he really don’t know jacksh*t. He talks out of both sides of his mouth.
@sferamedialna
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
RIP this man's portfolio in Jan 2023.
@jamesruscheinski8602
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
news on internet and youtube; substantive nature choice on television
@Nauticalstars
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
Love this guy ! “ I’m in the money making business “ lol 😂
@angeladeem2988
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
During a bear markt, the headlines will focus on negative news, whether it's declining economic growth, geopolitical upheaval, cultural and legal turmoil, or some combination of all three. I listened to a podcast of someone that grew his reserve from $120k to almost $460k during this Red season, can you share tips on how to make such aggressive proceeds in short periods?
@mathwithmro
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
nice job, Neal. stock price is the bible. Love it. Keep up the good work.
@veronica2764
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
I hate hedge funds! Of course they want the market down so they can shorted! Phhhh!!!!
@MarketRebellion
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
Excellent report.
@MARIODX
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
It's a bear market, stop saying Bull**it please
@cicatrace
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
Inverse head and shoulders on SPY chart… nothing bearish about this, in fact its a trend reversal structure that works about 70% of the time
@SP-sl6dj
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
I wish I knew how to do what he’s doing lol
@tomfoley2277
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
"I'm not in the prediction business. I'm in the money making business." that was priceless!
@ruthsafdie5107
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
PONZI FRAUD
@jimwiltse9558
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
What a rude interviewer, the only think she's good at is interrupting.
@claus1225
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
Cocky but he got it right
@smartandsimpleSNS
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
👀👀👀🚨🚨🚨
@DreaminBig
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
This guy is sharp. And I essentially learned that he is playing with what the market gives him.
@robhingston
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
Bear is not over yet
@onedropontv8863
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
Is this real or fake news?
@roadto300kusdbtc7
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
What a dweeb. ahhaha
@arigutman
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
Couldn't agree more in that there will be more downside to come… inflation may have peaked, but that is not how the market works… interest rates will remain elevated and businesses will reduce labor intake which will ultimately spark negative quarters worth of GDP!
@torontomunda
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
Are Campbell soup and Unilever stock safe ?
@presley492
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
I've been investing with TERESA JENSEN WHITE's guidance for a few years and I couldn't be happier. Her company has given me the best ROI while preserving my capital and has the most thorough investment guidance out there. It also never burns my money with speculation or poor philosophies of risk management.
@HIRISK
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
Lmfao. Was up 300% in 2022 cause of OXY and CVNAs dead cat bounces.
This is just a scare tactic. Hedgefunds are liking XLP. Meaning it’s gonna be a good year
@gmshadowtraders
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
DID HE BUY GOLD OR NOT. IT'S ON A TEAR.
@syedarmaghanhassan4652
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
5:40 What does she mean by negative yielding Debt?
@csp103
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
Can DANI BURGER please SHUT UP and STOP INTERRUPTING NEIL with your ASSININE QUESTIONS!!
NOBODY wants to HEAR your INNANE PRATTLE
@rocar38
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
The market made a bottom in oct. No new highs but that's 3 months to his point.
@cogx
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
Neal subtracts from Bloomberg’s credibility. Arrogant without substance while abundantly contradictory. You can’t be in the “money making business” if you “aren’t in the prediction of how markets will move business or monetary policy or inflation”, as he states.
@mikeanderson4795
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
This did not age well one day later
@SACAPITALMARKETS
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
I would be long gold and I know that sounds nuts but just think about everything going on in the global Econ and you can see where gold is going, straight up.
@Silaipo
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
All shorts burn in hell
@syedarmaghanhassan4652
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
2:55 What did she say? "what are your top ….. Neal" ? What?
@markreynolds1112
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
ok stacey thnk 4 letting us knw tht u wuld never ever try predict wer inflation is going….nw jst gt on with the interview 4cs
@jimsmith8324
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
Housing and housing related stocks bottomed 4 months ago.
@pt265
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
.I've maxed out on my 401k contributions. Extra $3k in 2023 if over 50.
.Buy APPLE, MICROSOFT, AMAZON, GOOGLE, VERIZON (VZ), Wells Fargo…then go back to sleep and wake up rich in a few years.
It's just so stupid to me how investors think that these big market leader profitable companies lose 20%+ of their stock values this year.
It's like my house, I know its value and if price were to nose dive -40%, I'm not selling because I don't need to sell. Sure there will be some desperate people who need to sell. But there's a limited inventory of houses or stocks (fewer each quarter as they buy back their stocks), so even if my stock prices go down, I STILL OWN these powerhouse companies that continue to lead.
And Verizon continues to pay 7.5% dividend.
@danieldecides7894
January 2, 2024 at 12:00 pm
How can you make money if you don't have views on the issue of futuristic probabilities?
That is latterly espoused but surely the environment the guest speaks of is fertile for traders and speculators.