Bloomberg Surveillance: Early Edition, live from London and New York. Francine Lacqua, Anna Edwards, Matt Miller, and Kailey Leinz deliver the latest news and analysis on the markets with leaders in global finance and economics. Swetha Ramachandran, Investment Director for Luxury Equities at GAM, says a weaker euro has aided earnings for many luxury companies. Luke Hickmore, Investment Director at abrdn, says peak dollar strength will be reached soon. Kateryna Pishchikova, Associate Research Fellow at the Institute for International Political Studies, says gas trade is the most important weapon.

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Carlyle Global Head of Aerospace, Defense and Government Ian Fujiyama spoke with Bloomberg’s Dani Burger from the sidelines of Carlyle’s Global Investor Conference in Washington. He discussed the wave of investor excitement in defense tech, investing at the edge of innovation, supply-chain resilience, AI in defense, and more.
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Comprehensive cross-platform coverage of the U.S. market close on Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg Radio, and YouTube with Romaine Bostick, Katie Greifeld, Carol Massar and Emily Graffeo.
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US equity futures waver ahead of PPI data, Oracle earnings and a rate decision from the European Central Bank. Brent crude reaches $102 a barrel as Iran is said to be ready to intensify its counterattacks if the US continues its strikes. President Trump pledges a $5,000 payout to voters if the Republican party wins the midterm elections. The president is set to speak again at the Republican National Convention in Dallas today. Jack Caffrey of JPMorgan Asset Management joins “Bloomberg Brief” to recap this earnings season.

This video has been edited to correct a graphic to note that ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak. Lagarde’s name was misspelled at 00;41;26;29

Chapters:
00:00:00 – Bloomberg Brief Begins
00:00:18 – Top Stories & Headlines
00:00:49 – Global Markets Check: Asian Markets, Oil and the Japanese Yen
00:02:06 – ECB Rate Decision and European Inflation
00:03:57 – First Look Movers: American Eagle, Cooper & AeroVironment
00:05:08 – Trump Proposes $5,000 “Dividend” for Republican Win
00:07:52 – Trump, Iran and the Risk of Further Escalation
00:11:10 – Oil Prices, Tanker Costs and Energy Supply Stress
00:14:17 – Trending on the Terminal
00:15:46 – Nvidia-Groq Deal Faces DOJ Scrutiny, TSMC Demand and Oracle Earnings Preview
00:20:12 – Front Page News
00:21:32 – Markets: Treasury Yields, Oil and Futures
00:23:08 – First Look Movers
00:24:27 – Jack Caffrey, JPMorgan Asset Management Equity Portfolio Manager, on Earnings, the AI Boom, & Higher Rates and Pressure on the US Consumer
00:33:12 – Trending on the Terminal
00:34:31 – Trump’s $5,000 Midterm Offer and Republican Strategy, Oil Inflation and the Impact on Voters
00:39:03 – ECB Preview: Rates, Inflation and Energy Prices
00:42:35 – What to Watch
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Oil surges above $108 a barrel after an attack shuts Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, a key route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz and threatens to deepen the global energy crisis. A planned Oman-Iran meeting on Hormuz is postponed as Saudi Arabia submits amendments to Oman’s proposal, while Houthi advances raise fresh risks for shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The US energy deputy secretary discusses Venezuela’s oil potential and efforts to limit the impact of higher prices.
Asian stocks fall on concerns over an AI slowdown, with SoftBank shares sliding after AI leaders raise caution about development and spending. OpenAI’s Sam Altman says the company will prioritize safety and does not expect an IPO in 2026, while AI figures including Altman and Elon Musk weigh concerns over the pace of AI development.
Markets also face a major week for central banks, with Kevin Warsh under pressure to consider a 25-basis-point rate hike. US core CPI comes in above forecasts, adding to pressure on policymakers. Trump and Warsh remain on a collision course over interest rates, while Trump says he is not worried about Xi calling off their summit and announces plans to eliminate tariffs on Irish whiskey.
The UAE economy shows resilience despite the war, although economists expect GDP growth to slow to 1.7% this year before a sharp recovery next year. Meanwhile, Dangote’s fortune could rise by $23 billion through a refinery IPO expected to raise $1.6 billion and value the business at almost $50 billion. Guests includes Hasan Alhasan, IISS Middle East Policy Senior Fellow and Anita Krishna Gupta, Wealthbrix Capital Partners CIO.

Horizons Middle East & Africa is your daily spotlight on one of the world’s fastest-growing regions. Live from Dubai, we bring you the latest global markets and analysis, plus news-making interviews, with a special focus on MEA. All that and more, as you head to the office in the Gulf, pause for lunch in Hong Kong, or start your day in London or Johannesburg.

Chapters:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:04:33 – Saudi Shuts Oil Pipeline Bypassing Hormuz
00:08:02 – Hasan Alhasan, IISS Middle East Policy Senior Fellow
00:15:24 – Anita Krishna Gupta, Wealthbrix Capital Partners CIO
00:27:11 – AI Bosses Back Slower AI Development
00:32:50 – UAE Economy Shows Resilience Amid War
00:36:36 – James Danly, US Energy Deputy Secretary
00:39:23 – Dangote’s Fortune Set to Jump $23B on Refinery IPO
00:42:24 – Major Central Banks to Deliver Rate Decisions This Wee
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