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Inflation Fears Hit Short Bonds as Government Shutdown Extend | The Close 10/3/2025

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Indonesia’s Selloff Deepens With Officials set for MSCI Meeting

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Indonesian markets extended their selloff, with stocks deepening their worst rout in almost 30 years and losses spreading to bonds and the rupiah after MSCI warned the country may face a two-step downgrade. Bloomberg’s Anthony Stephens has more. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-19/indonesian-stocks-tumble-to-lowest-since-2020-after-msci-warning
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Can America Rebuild Trust With Its Allies?

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Former Canadian deputy prime minister and “Wall Street Week” contributor Chrystia Freeland and former US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen say that globalization became dangerously dependent on countries willing to weaponize trade and supply chains. Freeland recounts her shared sentiment with Yellen in her new book, “Unreliable Boyfriend.”
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UK to Send Fighter Jets to Defend Saudi Arabia From Houthi Attacks

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Britain plans to deploy RAF Typhoon fighters to defend Saudi cities against Houthi missiles and drones. The attacks are testing the kingdom’s defences and adding to its economic pressures. Saudi Arabia’s substantial wealth contrasts with tighter cash flows, as spending increased 15% in the first half of 2026.

Oil moves higher as attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz threaten crude deliveries. Meanwhile, Asian shares and US markets gain as stronger American AI earnings revive enthusiasm for technology stocks. Ken Griffin offers a cautionary counterpoint, warning that the AI investment boom shows signs of a bubble.

Elon Musk backs the idea of combining Tesla and SpaceX. Both companies have formed committees to explore a potential merger, but no agreement has been reached.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Anthropic’s computing commitments could eventually reach $750 billion, including around $450 billion in cloud agreements over seven to ten years. Its demand exceeds available computing capacity, while potential liability for AI-related harm presents another major risk. First-half 2026 figures show revenue of $16.3 billion, nearly $9 billion spent on computing and infrastructure, and an $80.7 billion net loss largely attributable to accounting adjustments.

Markets Live considers whether strong growth could push Treasury yields to fresh highs. Rufaro Chiriseri, RBC Wealth Management’s Head of Fixed Income for the UK and Europe, remains cautious about longer-dated US bonds and discusses how concerns about passing France’s budget risk becoming self-reinforcing.

Netflix faces a fourth consecutive quarter of slowing revenue growth. Ted Sarandos acknowledges that the US business is not expanding as quickly as the company would like.

Emirates NBD reports third-quarter operating income of AED14.3 billion, slightly above the AED14.2 billion estimate. Dubai’s luxury housing market cools from record levels, with Knight Frank counting 86 sales of homes costing at least $10 million during the quarter. Separately, Maven plans to close its New York office as it builds its presence in Dubai.

At the APEC finance ministers’ gathering, China’s Lan Fo’an calls for a coordinated response to global economic uncertainty. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane argues that wider international use of the euro could strengthen the central bank’s ability to manage inflation.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy describes recent discussions with Washington positively, while US envoy Steve Witkoff prepares to meet Vladimir Putin as diplomatic efforts over Ukraine continue.

Senegal’s bonds fall sharply as a budget dispute unsettles investors. In South Africa, Enoch Godongwana is expected to maintain fiscal discipline, with attention on whether the government can improve on its consolidated deficit forecast of 4% of GDP for 2026–27. A proposed fiscal anchor would help restrain public debt, while Moody’s sees the possibility of its first South African rating upgrade since 2009. Guests includes Rufaro Chiriseri, RBC Wealth Management Head of Fixed Income, UK & Europe and Vandana Hari, Vanda Insights Founder.

Chapters:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:04:53 – UK to Deploy Fighter Jets to Defend Saudi Arabia
00:10:40 – SpaceX and Tesla Form Committees to Discuss Tie-Up
00:15:15 – Rufaro Chiriseri, RBC Wealth Management Head of Fixed Income, UK & Europe
00:27:28 – Vandana Hari, Vanda Insights Founder
00:36:07 – Dubai Luxury Home Sales Fall From Record Levels
00:40:19 – South Africa in Line for Credit Rating Upgrade
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The Battery Boom Moving From Electric Cars to the Power Grid

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Factories built to supply America’s electric-vehicle boom are getting a second life making batteries for the power grid. As EV demand weakens and electricity demand from data centers and new factories strengthens, battery makers are shifting toward stationary storage, but the new market still relies on federal incentives and a supply chain that remains partly dependent on China. The shift is visible at TransGrid’s Atlas projects in Arizona, where the contractor Qcells is using LG Energy Solution’s US-made battery cells.
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AI Spending Woes, Investors Seek Havens, France Debt Crisis

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“Bloomberg Real Yield” highlights the market-moving news you need to know. Today’s guests: DoubleLine Capital Deputy Chief Investment Officer Jeff Sherman, TD Bank Head of Europe & UK Rates Strategy Pooja Kumra, and Pimco Multi-Asset Credit Strategist Lotfi Karoui.

YouTube Chapters:

00:00 Bloomberg Real Yield opens
02:56 Michael McKee on Inflation and the Fed
05:33 Jeffrey Sherman, DoubleLine Capital, on Treasuries
07:20 Treasuries vs. U.S. Fiscal Concerns
08:38 Treasury Issuance and Long-Term Yields
10:16 Midterms and the Bond Market
11:24 Shifting Demand for U.S. Treasuries
13:07 Musk Invests $1 Billion in Skydance
14:18 France’s Bond Market Turmoil
15:08 ECB Response to France
16:12 Pooja Kumra, TD Securities, on French Debt
17:09 Safe-Haven Demand and France Risks
19:02 Is Europe Heading for Another Debt Crisis?
21:22 Auction Block: Credit Issuance
22:23 AI Spending and Credit Risks
23:12 Credit Roundtable: AI Debt
25:24 Jeffrey Sherman on Hyperscaler Issuance
27:24 Finding Value in AI Credit
28:03 Lotfi Karoui, PIMCO, on AI Debt
29:16 Diversifying Beyond AI Credit
30:15 Triple-C Credit and Contagion Risks
31:38 High-Yield Market Opportunities
33:20 Treasury Market Update
34:05 Muni Moment: NYC School Enrollment
37:03 Abandoned College Campuses and Housing
38:52 Final Thought: Next Fed Decision
40:13 Fed Task Forces and Potential Changes
41:08 Warsh, Bessent and Fed-Treasury Relations
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